A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
