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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.