Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”