Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.